Today India will release GDP data for the quarter ended 30 September after market hours and Fiscal Deficit data for October at 1030 GMT.
Indian economy is likely to expand by 5.1% in the third quarter but the reading is lesser than second quarter growth of 5.7%. If the growth rate exceeds the expectations of analysts then we may see good appreciation in currency and further foreign fund inflow. Fiscal deficit has come down compare to last reading but overall it has remained high in this year. Dual deficit may become harmful for economic growth.
The third largest economy of Asia has performed well in this year. The growth rate jumped near to two year high in last quarter. Government reforms and their business friendly approach have rejuvenated industries. Consumer confidence has also strengthened in last month compare to earlier. Market players are expecting better economic growth in coming months looking at political and financial market condition.
If the growth rate increases for the last quarter then it may provide support to RBI to not to cut interest rate in Dec meet but weak data may increase pressure on the Central Bank for rate cut.
Industrialists are waiting for reforms as it has been affecting their businesses. Changes in government policy will make many businesses live. Bills like Insurance, land acquisition, coal etc is expected to get resolved in this winter session of parliament.
In near time rupee is expected to remain in the range of 61.70 to 62.30. Next week movement will remain depended on GDP data and RBI decision on interest rate.